#441
Post rating: ~
deadken can u use ur contacts at the new york times to investigate up the steampunk wedding pictures?
#442
"Jpg." - Hank Hill
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speaking of evil it's weird to me that elizabeth bruening can be a member in good standing of the twitter left while being a catholic who believes in both evil and satan
#443
"Jpg." - Hank Hill
Post rating: ~
goldman: So many otherwise earnest haters of slavery and injustice confuse, in a most distressing manner, the teachings of Christ with the great struggles for social and economic emancipation. The two are irrevocably and forever opposed to each other. The one necessitates courage, daring, defiance, and strength. The other preaches the gospel of non-resistance, of slavish acquiescence in the will of others; it is the complete disregard of character and self- reliance, and therefore destructive of liberty and well-being.
bruening: according to this hooting albinoid primitive in a cassock, the dude who rose from the dead loves the poor.
twitter dude: yes, i believe both of these
#444
Post rating: +
so long as we continue to live in a world where there are supposed leftists who don't hate America, loving Jesus shall remain a venal sin at worst
#445
Post rating: +
i see dead ken has finally taken on the beast we all know as the true enemy of left organizing: intersectionality. finally we can begin organizing in earnest. i look forward to seeing all the organizing and org joining now that he's figured out this key issue.
#446
Post rating: ~
i listened to the boffler podcast...and well, deadkriss has a voice for twitter
#447
Post rating: +
also well done whoever decided to call the podcast "MONKEY CHEESE", and have it staring Amber Frost in brooklyn and Sam Kriss in a bathysphere 20,000 leagues undr the sea
#448
"Jpg." - Hank Hill
Post rating: -

tears posted:

i listened to the boffler podcast...and well, deadkriss has a voice for twitter



on the contrary, i was actually surprised at how deep and nongay his voice was. nice job sam

#449
Post rating: +
the best part is when he realizes that he has given the uncool take on well done steaks and then has to make himself amenable to amber's on-trend take in real time
#450
Post rating: +
he was repeatedly owned all the way through the podcast, and he didn't even realise
#451
"Jpg." - Hank Hill
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slight quibble here

Modern psephology hasn’t taken the mysticism out of this ancient practice, just robbed it of its grandeur. The age of truly data-driven psephology started in the early 2000s with the rise of Nate Silver, who got rid of all the dross that used to come with the game of predicting elections—the partisan interest, the stereotyping, the “national mood,” the ponderous gut-instinct of paunchy old commentators—and replaced it with binary numbers, black and white. It didn’t matter why someone told the pollsters she was going to vote in one way or another. The testimony of poll respondents was just a data-point, without history or determinations—a random artifact of the world, as individually meaningful as a chucked rock. Silver collapsed the whole practice of national-mood divination back into a denuded, numbers-driven irrationalism.



this isn't entirely true. one of the reasons silver's model failed so badly in predicting trump, particularly during the primary, is that he introduced all sorts of bias into the numbers like his "the party decides" *huge quote fingers* "unskewing" which added many percentage points to who had the most endorsements from newspapers and elected officials. of course, it's impossible to avoid adding bias to these sorts of things, but that's the point: even he was introducing imaginary factors that would tip the polls

also, not really related to ken's point, silver got famous for correctly predicting 49 states in the the 2008 election. the odds of doing this by random chance are astronomical, so he must be a wunderkind. except the last RCP map, just taking the last polls, correctly predicted 48 states. in 2012, silver got 50 out of 50. amazing! the RCP map got 49. note also how calling one more state right made no actual difference in these cases as obama would have own either way.

predicting these things is also overhyped. people treat it like it's brain magic but it isn't, any more than a cold reader guessing that a fat 65 year old's father is dead. in 2012, there were only 10 states actually in play in the last month, which means that even if you just took all the lean-or-better states for either side and flipped a coin on the batteground states, you would have predicted 45 out of 50 correctly.

#452
Post rating: +
damn maybe chairman bob avakian was on to something
#453
"Jpg." - Hank Hill
Post rating: +
without even getting into the problems of induction, a thing that is included in every poll yet is almost always ignored is the margin of error. if a common poll with a 4% margin of error shows hillary 51, trump 48, that does not mean that hillary has a small but comfortable lead. it means they are effectively tied, there is no scientifically robust way to determine who is leading, and you have wasted everyone's time. this is for state-level polls; national polls within the margin of error (nearly all of them) are even worse thanks to the electoral college. political prognostication comes down to "battleground" states, states within the margin of error on poll averages, as states outside this range are correctly taken for granted before we get into the meat of cloud-reading about candidate x's rallies, yard signs, or newspaper endorsements.
#454
UNUSUALY COOL
Post rating: ~
in workers' solidarity, i demand that the boffler buy an isolation shield for sam's microphone and lay dedicated cable across the atlantic ocean.
#455
"Jpg." - Hank Hill
Post rating: ~


i was sad that the next tweet was not him being like "welp,"
#456
"Jpg." - Hank Hill
Post rating: +
another problem with polling under nate silver spergology is that he runs these thousands of "simulations" in which he predicts who will win. i'm reminded of a show called "deadliest warrior" where the premise was like What IF kubla khan fought william wallace. historians would show the weapons and fighting styles they would have used, and then at the end a guy in a lab coat would run Multiple Simulations of their fights on a computer somewhere before declaring who would be the winner. all of these simulations were about as robust as the ones we're more familiar with which determine whether a level 11 dwarven ranger could defeat an ice dragon. silver's simulations are about the same, saying if the election was held today, x out of 1000 times Bob Smith would win. but the election isn't going to be held today, and even if it were, it wouldn't be held 1000 times
#457
Online
Post rating: ~
it might be
#458
"Jpg." - Hank Hill
Post rating: ~
putin: if only we had rigged the election one thousand and ONE times
#459
Post rating: +
deadliest warrior is cool because of the episode where they made a pirate fight a european knight. They said, lets see if firearms can penetrate steel plate armour. Then they get the tiniest flintlock pistol in the world and fire it at this suit of armour and it bounces off. Conclusion: bullets cant hurt a knight. Eliminate firearms from the simulation.
#460
Post rating: +

Gibbonstrength posted:

deadliest warrior is cool because of the episode where they made a pirate fight a european knight. They said, lets see if firearms can penetrate steel plate armour. Then they get the tiniest flintlock pistol in the world and fire it at this suit of armour and it bounces off. Conclusion: bullets cant hurt a knight. Eliminate firearms from the simulation.



actually the best deadliest warrior is IRA vs Taliban where the IRA win because they were decent White terrorists

#461
Post rating: +


what a self own, you idiot sam kriss, you absolute moron (birding thread crossover)
#462
Post rating: ~
That is not a Jackdaw that's a duck lol
#463
"Jpg." - Hank Hill
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Belphegor posted:

That is not a Jackdaw that's a duck lol



Don't troll.

#464
Post rating: ~
There's no such thing as a duck idiot
#465
"Jpg." - Hank Hill
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Keven posted:

There's no such thing as a duck



God is Hitler's duck

#466
chickeon
Post rating: ~
it's a house crow, noit entirely dissimilar but jackdaws have a considerably smaller bill + other morphological differences that are pretty easy to spot in that shot
#467
Post rating: +
thats pretty clearly a hooded crow !!!
#468
chickeon
Post rating: +
fuck ive been outbirded in a fit of hubris
#469
"Jpg." - Hank Hill
Post rating: ~

le_nelson_mandela_face posted:

tears posted:

i listened to the boffler podcast...and well, deadkriss has a voice for twitter

on the contrary, i was actually surprised at how deep and nongay his voice was. nice job sam



i look at the downvotes on this post and hope that one day deadken will be amongste them.....

#470
chickeon
Post rating: ~
got any choice words for keven and doneld?
#471
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88888 posted:

thats pretty clearly a hooded crow !!!


it's a blue-nosed crow

#472
UNUSUALY COOL
Post rating: +
gorgeous pit, Sam
#473
"Jpg." - Hank Hill
Post rating: ~

chickeon posted:

got any choice words for keven and doneld?



i didnt listen to it because i didnt want to know what they sound like irl

#474
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they sound pretty much exactly how you would expect them to, tbh
#475
chickeon
Post rating: ~
i thoguht keven would sound like donald and donald would sound like keven
#476
"Jpg." - Hank Hill
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sam kriss may have left twitter? *extremely mid-atlantic accent into giant receiver* Have we reached "Peak..Sam...Kriss??"
#477
Online
Post rating: +
he probably left, whatever alps country he was vacationing in
#478
"Jpg." - Hank Hill
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#479
Post rating: +
Sam went to Israel and got a gf, hes dead to me.
#480
"Jpg." - Hank Hill
Post rating: ~
i give it a 100% chance sam's gf is keri russell in a wig