like which of the two people described here is actually useful in some way
I don't think the YPG are intentionally and knowingly part of a plan to destabilize Syria, but there is potential for their current actions to be part of a long term partitioning project of Syria by the US.
Horselord posted:i like the idea that if you post and don't fight isis you're fine, but if you both post and fight isis you're bad
like which of the two people described here is actually useful in some way
The posting thing is important (and potentially unbecoming of cadre) precisely because fighting ISIS is actually useful. Jokes are a great way to take the piss outta stuff, but there's clearly a fucking problem if a jokey attitude leads to naivete with media interviews, generally betrays institutional professionalism, or clouds your judgment regarding OPSEC.
pogfan1996 posted:The concern that a US-backed Kurdish federalist project (which the YPG is fighting for)
i have never seen any substantiation for why limited u.s. support is sufficient to justify rojava as a us-backed project when russia has been a much more significant defender of kurdish federalism. actual political advocacy for the federalist project between rojava and the syrian state have been solely facilitated by russian mediation and advocacy. the decision to frame kurdish federalism in syria as "u.s. backed" as opposed to "russian backed" is a completely arbitrary one.
u.s. support has been delivered on the basis of tactical military engagements against daesh but russia are the only party who have intervened in support of the actual political project and designs of the ypg
it is also extremely questionable whether the u.s. imperialist design actually sees any value in the kurdish federalist project. they remain intimately tied to and materially supportive of the turkish forces which are by far the biggest opponent to kurdish federalism. when daesh are expelled, turkey remains as the biggest regional threat to syrian sovereignty. these incursions have been and will be justified by the presence of the ypg. i see no reason to believe that u.s. imperialism will side against the interests of turkey and their incursions.
pogfan1996 posted:I don't think there's any doubt about the US's stance when it comes to partitioning Syria, a partitioned Syria is a weakened Syria.
Nobody doubts that this is what the u.s. desires but there has been no substantiation for the fact that rojava actually represents partitions as opposed to a peaceful internal democratic federalism.
again, the united states has not intervened in any way in support of a political solution to the kurdish question within syria. russia has. there is simply no reason to believe that u.s. political designs are more indicative of the rojava project than russian designs when it only the latter which has surfaced as an attempted political reality
i understand the need for a measured skepticism. but when a regional power has repeatedly taken up arms to defend syria against imperialist backed aggressors, coordinated with militarily and entered into diplomatic relations with the syrian state, engaged in a close political allegiance with the counter-hegemonic balancing power and is existentially opposed to what has been and will continue to be the biggest regional military threat to syrian sovereignty such skepticism is becoming inordinate
contradictions will surely shift without daesh but i think turkey justifying their dismantling of syrian sovereignty because of the presence of the ypg - as they have done throughout the conflict - is a far more significant threat than the ypg reversing their current positions entirely
Edited by blinkandwheeze ()
i don't see how such skepticism would be applicable when it is reasonable to believe that this is all ypg volunteers will be doing in current conditions
pogfan1996 posted:The concern that a US-backed Kurdish federalist project (which the YPG is fighting for) could result in the weakening and possible partitioning of the Syrian state is valid. It will be interesting to see what happens with the YPG if/when ISIS is removed, because that is when the interests of the separatist die hards and the Syrian people will be the most antagonistic. It's at that point that we will see the seeds that the US is planting start to sprout.
I don't think the YPG are intentionally and knowingly part of a plan to destabilize Syria, but there is potential for their current actions to be part of a long term partitioning project of Syria by the US.
I feel like Turkey is too much of a threat for them to want to substantially fracture off from Syria
pogfan1996 posted:I don't think there's any doubt about the US's stance when it comes to partitioning Syria, a partitioned Syria is a weakened Syria. Like I said, we won't see the true antagonistic tendencies develop until after the ISIS conflict. The basis of the left-wing skepticism towards the Kurdish federalism project is based on sound judgment and caution. When it comes to what left wing Americans should do in terms of political activity, joining the YPG should be viewed with skepticism.
from a fb post:
"There are unconfirmed reports of an agreement between Syrian Kurds and the US government to "grant" the Kurdish regions of Syria with autonomy. Considering the support America and Israel have offered the Kurdish militias during the cause of the war in Syria, this is very worrying. Regardless how progressive groups like the YPG claim to be, this will make them little more than puppets for the west's plans to further partition Syria. International Leftists who are supporting these groups have tricked themselves into aiding imperialism."
"It's hard to claim your having a workers revolution when your waiting for American bombers to clear your way."
"I've spoke to British fighters in the International Brigade who said they work closely on most operations with the FSA. I can't imagine these groups will untangle themselves."
https://en.insidesyriamc.com/2017/03/24/breaking-news-state-of-great-kurdistan-to-be-created-in-syria-and-iraq/
http://www.rferl.org/a/us-backed-forces-airdrop-behind-enemy-lines-syria-near-raqqa-first-time-euphrates-dam-tabqa/28385700.html
"Besides recapturing the dam, SDF said the U.S.-backed operation also aimed to block any advance by Syrian government forces from the west."
unlike say hezbollah the ypg/sdf seem to put out confusing mixed messaging all the time... these are rumours and disinfo but not good signs
its worth noting that the public face of the YPG such as Polat Can media spokesperson and the international ypg volunteers hate the syrian government a lot more than the ypg themselves, judging by the actions of the ypg and the attitudes of individual members i've seen.
also worth noting Salih muslim pyd leader who is currently claiming Raqqa will be part of rojava has some intrigues around him
http://www.voltairenet.org/article194302.html
xipe posted:its worth noting that the public face of the YPG such as Polat Can media spokesperson and the international ypg volunteers hate the syrian government a lot more than the ypg themselves,
The same could easily be said of Sinn Fein. haha im trollin
e: here is a community actively oppressed by the british state in collaboration with sinn fein
https://www.facebook.com/garcabu/?fref=ts
Edited by xipe ()
swampman posted:I assume you'd have mentioned already but was there a general attitude about the YPG in Damascus that differs from my own expectations (that they'd prefer the integrity of a whole syria / tactical alliances are regrettably necessary / this american's tweets are terrible)
I didn't know anything about that.
Wish I had been able to find out about this while out there but trying to do so now from the online
The most interesting development at the right now is the crossing of the euphrates at tabaqah by SDF/YPG forces, which cuts off the main aleppo-raqqa highway which runs south along lake assad. There is only one viable route for the saa to raqqa, and its this one.
It should be obvious that the liberation of raqqa, the 6th largest city in syria, is an enormous task. Looking at evidence from the liberation of aleppo and the ongoing attempt in mosul we can get a gauge of how long this will take. Also, from the mosul offensive we can see, yet again, the failiure of over-reliance on airpower, and the mass civilian casualties this causes. To liberate a city requires people on the ground and a willingness to get your hands dirty - i.e. to understand and accept the large number of military casualties on the attacking side as a nessessity. We saw this this in aleppo - a coordination of troops and armor with artillery and airpower as support. In contrast in mosul we've seen typical US belief that wars can be won from the air, and an acceptance of mass civilian casualties as nessesary.
Obviously - it is sensible to surround raqqa to cut off reinforcements and lines of retreat, and to recapture the tabaquah dam from isis - this is a good development. but is this to prevent SAA involvement in liberating raqqa?
But - what really interesting to me is if the SDF/YPG actually have the military capability to retake raqqa - both in hardware and morale. It would be a very tough battle for the SDF, resulting in many casualties. For me this is where the US forces come in. They were recently instrumental in "airlifting" SDF forces across the euphrates for the attempt to retake tabaqa airbase, dam etc, as well as taking control of part of the aleppo-raqqa highway. providing rapid movement capabilities that the SDF had no access to. They also - it seems certain - will be providing airstrikes on raqqa in the manner of the mosul offensive, as well as artillery support, potentially armour. Morale wise it remains to be seen if SDF forces are willing to accept the predominantly kurdish casualties required to liberate a predominantly arab city - as xipe posted people like salih muslim seem keen to push the assault on raqqa by the sdf + us help only, but certainly there will be counter-arguments and opposition to this. how this plays out, well, time will tell.
My worst case scenario is if SAA forces are prevented from playing any part in the liberation of raqqa, with a weak SDF ground offensive that gets bogged down in the suburbs as resistance increeses, unable or unwilling to push further in, and then falling back on sustained airstrikes and artillery, which will produce the most number of civilian casualties.
a lot of armchair general speculation in this post. time will tell. now back to posting about twitter.
http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2016/10/pmu-iraqi-us-mosul-battle.html
hard to see how sustainable 5000 US troops will be in that climate.
in terms of assets: turkey has been threatening to deny the US use of its major mid-east bases Incirlik from where they transport Trooops and launch bombing raids (and hold 50 nuclear warheads)
this is the airbase they are building in Rojava by comparison
xipe posted:"It's hard to claim your having a workers revolution when your waiting for American bombers to clear your way."
Again i have to raise the point that i have no idea why limited tactical support from the united states is relevant to determining the character of a group but russian support somehow isn't. the case that the ypg are interested in partition is purely based on unconfirmed rumours and disinfo while their interest in a peaceful federal arrangement has been actively pursued and brokered by explicit russian support. similar rumours have been around throughout the entire conflict yet the actual practical development turned out to be a turn toward active collaboration with the saa. at some point you have to demand reasonable evidence.
in any case, which tendency will be correct will only become clear in the future. if the kurdish federalist project doesnt contribute towards the weakening of the syrian state, you are correct. if the kurdish federalism project becomes a focal point of the US weakening syria, well then we have to examine what happened
Edited by pogfan1996 ()
pogfan1996 posted:russia has explicitly been advocating a strategy of slowly dismantling the syrian economic system while leaving assad in power. i really dont know why you think the russian involvement is some big "gctcha" when it just reinforces the point that YPG skeptics have been making all along
but this isn't the point ypg skeptics have been making all along and i think you're being ridiculously disingenuous for suggesting it is. the argument is not that the ypg are being used as a vehicle for russian designs to undermine ba'athist socialism while protecting syrian sovereignty, it's that the ypg are likely to be in service of american designs to undermine syrian sovereignty and empower sectarian violence to partition the syrian state. you yourself have been identifying the concerns regarding u.s. led partition efforts
i'm not saying that it's unreasonable to be concerned about russia wielding their influence in terms of economic self-interest. but russian support for the federalist project absolutely is a "gotcha" for accusations that this project is in fact indistinguishable from a project of u.s. backed partition. disputing this by pointing to concerns about russia's influence is completely changing the line of argumentation
i understand that we are weighing evidence differently but i simply don't see the evidence which suggests your concerns are likely to develop. they entail a complete and total reverse of their current standing. of course you're right that we can only properly assess this once further developments occur, but by this same token it makes the perpetual skepticism being advanced by ypg cynics unfruitful and unproductive. this cynicism is not merely saying "wait and see," it's actively accusing the goals and interests of the ypg as being tied to imperialist designs
pogfan1996 posted:I honestly think you are a smart and intelligent person blink, but I don't feel like this discussion is all that productive.
catchphrase
blinkandwheeze posted:But my issue is that i don't think there is as neat a distinction between where the ypg are today and post-conflict conditions in the future as you are making. the close collaboration with russia in forwarding a diplomatic federal arrangement
This is pretty significant, do you have any links on it
ilmdge posted:blinkandwheeze posted:But my issue is that i don't think there is as neat a distinction between where the ypg are today and post-conflict conditions in the future as you are making. the close collaboration with russia in forwarding a diplomatic federal arrangement
This is pretty significant, do you have any links on it
http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2016/10/turkey-russia-mediates-between-kurds-and-assad.html Salih gedo at the time was foreign minister of the jazira canton. the draft constitution offered by russia of this year also integrates federal allowances and kurdish cultural autonomy
According to Gedo, the Syrian government's delegation did not accept the agreement, saying it would split the country, and Damascus would not agree to start a dialogue about an autonomous administration.
I still think ending the civil war is priority #1 so the SDF is on the right side for now and this is a question for a later time, but Syria's lack of enthusiasm for this sort of arrangement does raise questions, even if Russia is going to the negotiating table on it and not the US
https://sarahabed.com/2017/03/02/syria-the-criminal-empires-strategy-of-divide-conquer-and-destroy/
e: part 2 https://sarahabed.com/2017/03/08/empire-uses-kurds-as-pawns-in-its-imperial-pursuits-in-syria/
Edited by xipe ()
xipe posted:its worth noting that the public face of the YPG such as Polat Can media spokesperson and the international ypg volunteers hate the syrian government a lot more than the ypg themselves, judging by the actions of the ypg and the attitudes of individual members i've seen.
also worth noting Salih muslim pyd leader who is currently claiming Raqqa will be part of rojava has some intrigues around him
http://www.voltairenet.org/article194302.html
why are you linking to a 9/11 truther who claims the fucking PYD head is in cahoots with Erdogan
The system of government in Syria is dictated by the constitution, which is owned by the people of Syria, he said. So if the Kurdish population wants federalism, “they need to promote it among the Syrians,” said Assad. “I cannot give it to them. I don’t own it. I don’t own the political system in Syria.”
http://www.rudaw.net/english/middleeast/syria/141020162
if russian constitutional proposals end up being ratified as amendments, then democratic federal autonomy in northern syria would be recognised by assad
damoj posted:xipe posted:its worth noting that the public face of the YPG such as Polat Can media spokesperson and the international ypg volunteers hate the syrian government a lot more than the ypg themselves, judging by the actions of the ypg and the attitudes of individual members i've seen.
also worth noting Salih muslim pyd leader who is currently claiming Raqqa will be part of rojava has some intrigues around him
http://www.voltairenet.org/article194302.htmlwhy are you linking to a 9/11 truther who claims the fucking PYD head is in cahoots with Erdogan
because the claims made, that the PYD head met secretly with the turkish government intelligence, are true dickhead
This was amply on display during last week’s secret meeting in Ankara between Salih Muslim, the co-chair of the Democratic Union Party (PYD), and senior Turkish officials from the Foreign Ministry and the national intelligence agency, MIT. Muslim reportedly beseeched the officials to allow the passage of arms and, most crucially, anti-tank weapons through the Mursitpinar border crossing with Kobani to enable Syrian Kurdish People's Protection Units (YPG) fighters to fend off IS. Turkey said it would do so only if the PYD severed all its ties with the Syrian regime, joined the rebels, dissolved the PYD-dominated local governments running the enclaves, shared power with rival Syrian Kurdish parties and distanced itself from the PKK.
Muslim seems to have offered conflicting versions of what transpired, telling Al Jazeera that “agreement was reached in a number of areas" and the BBC that Turkey “did not keep its promises.” He has not responded to Al-Monitor’s repeated requests for comment. Either way, it’s hard to imagine that he yielded to Turkey’s demands or that he even has the authority to do so, because Ocalan and the PKK leadership in the Kandil Mountains call the final shots.
Turkey to its credit has offered sanctuary to more than 100,000 refugees from Kobani, and it is letting wounded YPG fighters in for treatment in hospitals.
...
With support from Barzani, Muslim also flew to Turkey from Erbil, the capital of the Kurdistan Region of Iraq (KRI). He was even able to give an interview to the pro-government, semi-official wire service Anadolu News Agency, asking for Ankara’s blessing for the status that the Kurds had in Syria’s new order. Even as much as a year later, Ankara was still secretly hosting Muslim, who was able to meet with Turkish intelligence officials.
Domestic policy drove the government’s policy in Syria vis-à-vis the Kurds.
Turkish government officials did not deny these talks took place. To the contrary, they gave details to the press about how Turkish intelligence authorities urged Muslim to bring his forces under the command of the Free Syrian Army. Nevertheless, when I met with Muslim on 28 February 2016, at the PYD’s offices in Brussels, he denied that he had ever met with Turkish intelligence officers, and said that his counterpart in the meeting with the Turks was Feridun Sinirlioğlu, the powerful Undersecretary of Foreign Affairs Ministry. But more surprisingly, he also revealed that his October 2014 visit was not his last visit to Turkey.
After Muslim’s visit to Turkey in October 2014, there were a couple of major developments. Just two weeks after Muslim’s visit, the US military dropped arms to Kurdish forces in Kobani. Still, Ankara’s rhetoric did not change dramatically toward the Syrian Kurds. Even though Kobani eroded the trust between the US and Turkey, in February of 2015, the Turkish press reported that 523 Democratic Union Party (PYD) members fighting in Kobani against ISIL were treated in Turkey. And when Turkey evacuated the Tomb of Süleyman Şah, which extremist jihadists in Syria were surrounding, the Turkish military passed through the PYD-controlled area to reach the site, just 30 kilometers away from the Turkish-Syrian border. Also, during this evacuation, Salih Muslim secretly came to Turkey. He stayed in a safe house in Istanbul, and followed the operation from the beginning. He told me that he had the phone number of the crisis desk where PM Davutoğlu was sitting. When asked whether he communicated with the people in Ankara during the operation, he told me no, but he said that he received a phone call at the end confirming that the mission was accomplished. Throughout all of this, Turkey denied that it had cooperated with the PYD.
xipe posted:because the claims made, that the PYD head met secretly with the turkish government intelligence, are true dickhead
the article you're linking to now directly contradicts the claims meyssan is making, though. it establishes that the secret meetings occurred by denies that turkey actually did recognise northern syria or that salih muslim agreed to the conditions turkey forwarded.
e: actually these sources are talking about a completely different thing, a meeting within turkey in early october. meyssan is alleging salih muslim was party to a meeting between erdogan and hollande in paris on the 31st, which i have found no substantiation for elsewhere
Edited by blinkandwheeze ()
Re: russian support for federation, it has been suggested that russia initially understood syria in terms of their own autonomous republics such as chechnia; but that since they have learned more about how intermixed syrian society they are less enthused about giving different ethnicities their 'own' regions ... but i cant see anything written about that
xipe posted:thats for a different meeting that happened later; i dont think there will be ironclad proof of such a conspiracy emerging for a while and i also dont think its unreasonable that the PYD leader was offered things by erdogan in such secret meetings and responded by saying he would think about them.
these meetings occurred earlier than the one meyssan is alleging happened. i see no reason to believe that this supposed meeting occurred, as going from an unfruitful meeting with minor turkish officials within turkey that was widely reported despite its secrecy, to meeting with erdogan himself in paris a few weeks later, yet this somehow only being reported by voltairenet and globalresearch, is pretty absurd
the globalresearch article on the meeting alleges salih muslim had just happened to slip through the back door immediately before a photo was taken, lol
xipe posted:Re: russian support for federation, it has been suggested that russia initially understood syria in terms of their own autonomous republics such as chechnia; but that since they have learned more about how intermixed syrian society they are less enthused about giving different ethnicities their 'own' regions ... but i cant see anything written about that
federal provisions are indicated toward in the constitutional draft efforts from january of this year, so unless you're talking about a shift in the past few months i'm not sure this is entirely accurate
xipe posted:Samir posted:Lest we forget that Kurds are ultimately nomads and their alliance lies with Israel.
Is this even true? Every Iraqi/Syrian-Kurdish person I've spoken to about this has been strongly opposed to Israel/Zionism.
'Syrian Kurds and Immoral (Turkish) Nationalists by Mihraç Ural,(leader of the pro-government militia Syrian Resistance)-28/02/2017-Thread pic.twitter.com/rttpQPCOtw
— Anita Garibaldi (@_liberationnat_) March 18, 2017
Excerpt: "We have written hundreds of articles on the subject. Unfortunately, those who have little knowledge about Syria and Syrian-Kurdish relations are responding under (Turkish) nationalist influence (they even call themselves 'democratic revolutionaries' with their fascist behavior). In reality, the history of Kurds in Syria is very different to the history of Kurds in Turkey..."
damoj posted:why are you linking to a 9/11 truther
because jet fuel can't melt steel beams, goo gle loose change
tears posted:i lied, sorry
i can't believe you've done this