#161
Izquierda Unida MP Alberto Garzón debates the Catalan independence referendum with the CUP’s Pau Llonch.

https://www.jacobinmag.com/2017/09/catalonia-independence-spain-referendum

wish there was more to this
#162
if i can find time ill throw something together, but id really hate to be responsible for "the official rhizzone line on catalunya".

also from my perspective things are in flux, so it's more difficult for me to feel confident of any answer to marlax's question regarding class character now than had the same question been posed 3 years ago.


#163

Gssh posted:

if i can find time ill throw something together, but id really hate to be responsible for "the official rhizzone line on catalunya".

also from my perspective things are in flux, so it's more difficult for me to feel confident of any answer to marlax's question regarding class character now than had the same question been posed 3 years ago.



it's just Gssh's line imo. idk about anyone else, but it's not like i agree with every front page article. only the ones about the governor of florida

#164
use this opportunity to assassinate the monarchy
#165
http://russia-insider.com/en/politics/largest-newspaper-spain-blames-russia-and-antiwarcom-catalonia-pro-independence-news
#166
I hope the Basque country declares independence, not cus of any thorough marxist reasoning that I cooked up, but so the Basque language can be relevant again (was it ever?).

Also unrelated but cool article for any linguistics nerds who decided to like linguistics for some reason
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basque%E2%80%93Icelandic_pidgin
Enjoy
#167
https://www.liberationnews.org/spanish-governments-crackdown-on-catalan-referendum-socialism-self-determination-and-class-unity/

The Party for Socialism and Liberation stands in solidarity with the victims of the massive violence carried out by the police forces of the Spanish state against residents of the Autonomous Community of Catalonia who were attempting to exercise their right to vote in a referendum on independence. This wave of repression left over 800 people injured. Nevertheless, 42 percent of the Catalan electorate — nearly 2.3 million people — managed to vote, and over 90 percent of those participating voted “Yes.”

While there is no consensus among the people of Catalonia on the issue of independence itself, the extreme and brutal response of the central government in Madrid has united Catalans and many others across the Spanish state in opposition to the right-wing administration of Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy. The principle issue has in many ways become democracy itself — do Catalans have the right to vote and decide their future for themselves?

Catalan national sentiment is often traced back to the end of the War of Spanish Succession in the early 1700s, but much fresher in the minds of the Catalan people is the experience under the fascist regime of Francisco Franco, who ruled the country from the end of the Spanish Civil War in 1939 until his death in 1975.

During the 1936-1939 civil war, Catalonia was a bastion of left-wing resistance to Franco’s forces. Once the fascists consolidated their power over the whole country, it became a crime to speak the Catalan language and pro-independence forces in Catalonia were subjected to vicious persecution. Much of the anti-referendum repression of the past days was carried out by the Civil Guard, an infamous institution that was an important pillar of the Franco regime.

While the Spanish constitution of 1978 marked the formal end of fascist rule and instituted a multi-party electoral system with a ceremonial monarchy, it did not thoroughly uproot Francoism from the state apparatus and maintained many of the oppressive aspects of the old regime. Although Catalonia gained significant autonomy during the “transition to democracy,” the 1978 constitution does not afford Autonomous Communities like Catalonia the right to secede. It is this anti-democratic provision that the Rajoy government is using as a pretext to crack down on the referendum.

Class struggle and the right of self-determination

The right of oppressed peoples to self-determination is a core principle for socialists. The subjugation of whole nations is a main aspect of the development of capitalism. In order to plunder resources, labor and markets, capitalist states have subjected peoples around the world to absolute political tyranny while seeking to eradicate cultural and linguistic traditions.

We view self-determination as an essential condition for genuine unity among working people of all nationalities, which in turn is an essential condition for the overthrow of capitalism on a global scale.

In his 1914 pamphlet “The Right of Nations to Self-Determination”, Bolshevik leader Vladimir Lenin wrote:

“The reactionaries are opposed to freedom of divorce; they say that it must be ‘handled carefully’, and loudly declare that it means the ‘disintegration of the family’. The democrats, however, believe that the reactionaries are hypocrites, and that they are actually defending the omnipotence of the police and the bureaucracy, the privileges of one of the sexes, and the worst kind of oppression of women. They believe that in actual fact freedom of divorce will not cause the “disintegration” of family ties, but, on the contrary, will strengthen them on a democratic basis, which is the only possible and durable basis in civilised society.

“To accuse those who support freedom of self-determination, i. e., freedom to secede, of encouraging separatism, is as foolish and hypocritical as accusing those who advocate freedom of divorce of encouraging the destruction of family ties. Just as in bourgeois society the defenders of privilege and corruption, on which bourgeois marriage rests, oppose freedom of divorce, so, in the capitalist state, repudiation of the right to self-determination, i. e., the right of nations to secede, means nothing more than defence of the privileges of the dominant nation and police methods of administration, to the detriment of democratic methods.”

The national struggle does not, however, supersede or put on hold the class struggle. The nation-state itself is a product of the struggle of the capitalist class against the feudal lords of Europe. The bourgeoisie sought to centralize many small, atomized principalities into new entities such as Germany and Italy in order to provide a secure footing for their rule.

In the 20th century, in large parts of Africa, Asia and Latin America the struggle for national self-determination against imperialism and the struggle for socialism became effectively fused as revolutionary forces became the dominant wing of the anti-colonial movement. On the other hand, in places like the former Yugoslavia it is clear that secessionist movements can also be used to assert imperialist hegemony.

Therefore, there can be no timeless and universal approach to the national question derived from the “classics” of Marxism. Each individual situation needs to be analyzed in the context of its historical development.

Carles Puigdemont, the leader of the Catalan Autonomous Community, is a conservative and a member of the right-wing Catalan European Democratic Party. It participates in a coalition called “Together for Yes” with the social democratic Republican Left of Catalonia (ERC).

The pro-independence section of the capitalist class has a clear international orientation towards the U.S.-dominated world order and the European Union. Catalan right-wing nationalists have made clear their favorable disposition to the NATO military alliance.

Although approximately 16 percent of the Spanish state’s population lives in Catalonia, it is responsible for about 20 percent of the country’s economic output. This is the fundamental basis on which a section of the Catalan capitalist class supports independence. The bourgeoisie of Catalonia wants to stop, as they put it, subsidizing the rest of Spain and grow even richer without being impeded by the Madrid government.

However, there is also a substantial section of the Catalan independence movement that is pro-socialist in character. The primary organizational expression of this is the Popular Unity Candidacy (CUP), which supported the referendum and called for a “free, independent and socialist republic” to be formed.

Because of the prominence of bourgeois forces in the pro-independence camp, much of the left in Catalonia and Spain supports the right to vote on the question but is opposed to secession itself.

Podemos, which emerged from the 2011 “movement of the squares” protests that were a precursor to the Occupy movement in the United States and is now the largest left-wing party in Spain, has this orientation. Podemos leader Pablo Iglesias and Xavier Domènech, head of Podemos’ Catalan sister party wrote in July:

“Corruption and the plundering of the public sphere, the norm of government of the old ruling parties in both Spain and Catalonia, are the clearest expression of the crisis of popular sovereignties. Corruption and the plundering of the public sphere are, in fact, the main threat to popular sovereignty and without popular sovereignty there can be no national sovereignty … In our opinion, October 1 is taking shape more as a vast mobilisation in favour of the right to decide and as an expression of the desire for sovereignty … That is why the October 1 mobilisation can be an act of affirming rights and sovereignty in the face of a situation that must be unblocked, given the PP’s categorical failure and its repressive tendencies. In this sense, we assert the legitimacy of October 1 as a political mobilisation and support its taking place. However, afterwards comes October 2 and work will have to continue for a referendum that must engage everyone and where nobody might feel invited to stay at home.”

The Communist Party of the Peoples of Spain issued a statement on the day of the referendum that stated:

“The PCPE has spoken clearly about the political basis of the Catalan conflict and the proposals that the working class needs in order to get out of the false dichotomies in which nationalism seeks to trap it. We have said that the road of independentism is not useful for achieving self-determination in Catalonia. But while we try to get the working class to choose its own way, we believe that all those Catalans who wanted to express themselves through the vote had the right to do so without having to face police charges. The actions of the State aimed at preventing the vote, especially those of a police nature, have all our rejection.”

As part of a debate with prominent Popular Unity Candidacy member Pau Llonch, Alberto Garzon, the leader of the Communist Party-led United Left alliance which supports the right to decide but not secession, wrote:

s the referendum the best way to break with the regime ? … The problem is that, to begin with–even assuming that this is the best way to break with the regime (which I do not believe, since the regime exists to defend a mode of production and a power structure that would not necessarily be altered by the mere existence of more states)—this is not our way. That is, we do not control any of the parameters of that break: anything could happen and nothing is decided in advance. Would the comrades of the CUP manage the post-independence scenario, or would the Catalan right wing lead it?”

Pau Llonch replied in defense of the Popular Unity Candidacy position:

“We defend concrete potentialities, you defend abstract alternatives. Since you ask for concrete analysis, an alternative in the strictly institutional sphere with a chance of being hegemonic in a Catalan Republic already exists: it is the sum of Catalunya en Comú , the ERC and the CUP. Note that we can allow ourselves to leave the PSC-PSOE out of the equation, unlike what can be proposed at the level of the Spanish state. Of course, this does not guarantee the eventual building of socialism in Catalonia, because that will depend, as always, on what happens on the streets rather than in the institutions, but it does offers an opportunity—very concrete—to continue fighting for possible alternatives in the current phase of post-crisis capitalist restructuring in the absence of totally antagonistic institutions, in a contest between honest social democracy (Catalunya en Comú and the ERC) and socialism (the CUP): that could be an example for many peoples in the Spanish state and on the European continent … There is no alternative to democratic resolution of this conflict, and no democratic resolution is possible within the Kingdom of Spain. The constitution of 1978 was erected on three pillars: capitalism as mode of production, the monarchical system and denial of the right of self-determination to the peoples of the State.”

In other words, the Popular Unity Candidacy believes that there is a clear left-wing majority in Catalan society, and unlike in the rest of Spain a left-wing government would not need to include the morally bankrupt and misnamed Socialist Workers Party of Spain (PSOE). This, they argue, is a much more favorable environment in which to conduct the struggle for socialism than the framework of the thoroughly reactionary Spanish state.

In the election for the Catalan regional parliament in 2015, the big tent pro-independence coalition Together for Yes came in first place, but did not secure a majority. After extensive internal debate, the Popular Unity Candidacy finally decided that it would use its votes in parliament to allow Together for Yes to form a regional government for the purpose of organizing an independence referendum. But in return the bourgeois nationalists had to choose someone other than the widely-hated and corrupt President Artur Mas to lead Catalonia.

Surge of opposition to reactionary Rajoy government

The sheer brutality of the Rajoy government in Madrid, both in the lead-up and during voting, has backfired. The anti-referendum hardliners have become increasingly isolated, and the police crackdown has had a unifying effect on progressive forces throughout the Spanish state.

Ada Colau, left-wing mayor of Barcelona, helped facilitate the referendum even though she herself cast a blank ballot. She condemned the police attacks on voters, saying “As mayor of Barcelona I demand an immediate end to police charges against the defenseless population.”

Prime Minister Rajoy’s People’s Party and their right wing allies in the Citizens party hold a minority of seats in the Spanish legislature. For their parliamentary majority, the right wing relies on the center-left PSOE, which does not participate in the government but allowed it to be formed.

After it became clear that the wave of police violence on the day of the referendum had resulted in hundreds of injuries, center-left leader Pedro Sanchez criticized the Rajoy government, urging it to pursue “peaceful coexistence, not confrontation” and supporting “opening a political negotiation channel that is more urgent than ever.” The Catalan referendum has done significant damage to the cohesion of the ruling reactionary bloc in Spanish politics and even raises the possibility of a no-confidence vote to bring down Rajoy.

The degree to which the Madrid government’s dictatorial attitude has boomeranged was on full display on October 3, when hundreds of thousands of people marched across Catalonia as part of a general strike that was called to protest the police repression that took place two days prior. Large sections of the economy were shut down as workers walked off the job and hit the streets in a massive display of defiance.

The opportunities for revolutionary struggle can be seized and the pitfalls of reactionary nationalism can be avoided only if Catalans are free from the oppressive boot and baton of the Rajoy government and its fascistic police.

#168

Dimashq posted:

I hope the Basque country declares independence, not cus of any thorough marxist reasoning that I cooked up, but so the Basque language can be relevant again (was it ever?).

Also unrelated but cool article for any linguistics nerds who decided to like linguistics for some reason
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basque%E2%80%93Icelandic_pidgin
Enjoy


Who cares about linguistics? It's not like language is the basis of culture or anything

#169
https://www.marxists.org/reference/archive/stalin/works/1929/03/18.htm

The Russian Marxists have long had their theory of the nation. According to this theory, a nation is a historically constituted, stable community of people, formed on the basis of the common possession of four principal characteristics, namely: a common language, a common territory, a common economic life, and a common psychological make-up manifested in common specific features of national culture. This theory, as we know, has received general recognition in our Party.

#170
something about reading stalin still trips me out because like, this guy was a head of state. can you imagine what its like to have a president that isnt just a glad handing dipshit MBA who says things like pokemon go to the polls
#171
Soviet ethnographers working among the nations of the USSR along those principles is a cool & deep topic and one of the easiest starter sets on the country for Westerners who have been taught that the USSR was the same as Nazi Germany
#172

JohnBeige posted:


this is a pretty good summary, even if a little optimistic regarding popular support for a socialist catalunya and its feasibility.

#173

kamelred posted:

something about reading stalin still trips me out because like, this guy was a head of state. can you imagine what its like to have a president that isnt just a glad handing dipshit MBA who says things like pokemon go to the polls


Stalin's intervention in the soviet debate on linguistics is funny to me because his position was a really uncontroversial one to western scholars. & the Marrist theoretical current he condemned were similarly rejected as pseudoscientific outside the ussr for basically the same reasons. so bourgeois accounts of the debate have to do a fun contorted dance where they condemn the soviets for entertaining psuedoscience and also uhh Not entertaining it enough

#174
Tapine was admonishing us for years to read puig, and we banned them for it.

Now look

#175
double puig??
#176
into piss, Puig and loving my grandchildren
#177

blinkandwheeze posted:

Stalin's intervention in the soviet debate on linguistics is funny to me because his position was a really uncontroversial one to western scholars. & the Marrist theoretical current he condemned were similarly rejected as pseudoscientific outside the ussr for basically the same reasons. so bourgeois accounts of the debate have to do a fun contorted dance where they condemn the soviets for entertaining psuedoscience and also uhh Not entertaining it enough



talking science history with liberals is an odyssey into a dimension where inventing the satellite, manned space flight and travel to other planets don't count as accomplishments

#178
it's happening dot gif?

AP (Barcelona) 36 mins ago
Police are guarding public buildings and closing off a park surrounding the regional Catalan parliament in Barcelona where a declaration of independence on Tuesday evening is likely to be met with a harsh response from Spanish central authorities.

Catalan president Carles Puigdemont hasn't revealed the precise message he will deliver in a 6 p.m. (12 p.m. ET) plenary session, but separatist politicians have said they expect a declaration based on the results of the disputed Oct. 1 independence referendum.

"I am thrilled," said Maria Redon, a 51-year-old office worker during Tuesday's busy commute in central Barcelona. "I've been waiting for this all my life. We have fought a lot to see an independent Catalonia."

The separatists have declared valid the pro-independence victory in the vote, which was followed by mass protests of Catalans angered by heavy-handed police tactics.

e: not actually happening, today

Edited by drwhat ()

#179
nvm ppl have already made the puig joke

but also there's a referendum for more fiscal autonomy or we happening in venice and lombardy on the 22nd. dun think it means anything probably
#180

Bablu posted:

nvm ppl have already made the puig joke

but also there's a referendum for more fiscal autonomy or we happening in venice and lombardy on the 22nd. dun think it means anything probably



probably fascist? seems the northern league are supporting it

#181

drwhat posted:

it's happening dot gif?


question mark no longer applies, stay safe gssh (and anyone else down there)

#182
It appeared briefly that Gambia had recognized the Catalan Republic, but it turned out to be from a fake twitter account.

Recognition so far. "NO" is in red.


#183
lol @ ireland
#184
i'm pretty amazed, i guess i shouldn't be, at how i can't find any intelligent discussion of this in the english language anywhere, as if spain is an inconsequential place and a western, developed member of the eu having a province secede is no big deal? seems crazy.

elnacional.cat seems useful.

in case people don't know from other sources:

The Spanish cabinet has given the green light to five decrees:

Removal from office of Catalan president Carles Puigdemont.
Removal from office of vice-president Oriol Junqueras and all the ministers of the government, except Santi Vila (who handed in his resignation yesterday).
Designation of Spanish ministries as the bodies in charge of taking on the roles of their Catalan counterparts. This decree also includes an appendix detailing equivalences for the roles that present more doubts, according to Spanish government sources.
Closures of Catalan government bodies: Diplocat (Public Diplomacy Council of Catalonia), offices and delegations abroad, removal of the representatives of Catalonia to Brussels, removal of the director of the Mossos (Catalan police) and the responsible official in the Catalan Interior department.
Dissolution of the Parliament of Catalonia and the calling of Catalan elections for the 21st December.



curious as to what the police organizations are doing right now.
various cities' city halls have removed their spanish flags.
a bunch of banks and megacorps moved their HQs out of Barcelona (including CaixaBank, which i think would make me mad if i was catalonian, since they advertise all over the city how catalonian they are)
the lack of more specific information is really ridiculous to me, how does this not have 24/7 blanket coverage, but i guess it doesn't because it doesn't fit in nationalist-capitalist narratives

#185
because people in much of the english speaking world assume this will just be some sort of low key bureaucratic nightmare/street protest thing that lasts forever. myself i have no idea
#186
kind of interested to see how this will play out since it doesn't seem like either side is budging.
#187
the footage did seem like a lot of liberal people just standing in the street having a nice day, which doesn't really strike me as fuel for breaking up a country. but i can't know, because there are no media organizations i'm aware of who have actually published opinions of everyday catalonians today.

what a crazy concept, just asking people in the actual place how they are feeling & what they are expecting
#188

cars posted:

because people in much of the english speaking world assume this will just be some sort of low key bureaucratic nightmare/street protest thing that lasts forever. myself i have no idea


it will be

#189
come monday puidgemont's party will have balkanized because everyone not hard-line independist will have left and the only ones still supporting the catalan republic will be the """left""" CUP. the eu will come smashing down on catalunya and any discussion on fiscal autonomy in spain will be frozen

puidgemont has inadvertently strengthened the spanish state because he has no grasp of the power dynamics within catalonia, spain, or the eu
#190
socialist worker's take (this is from Thursday, but their Friday article was just an editorial cheering them on)

https://socialistworker.co.uk/art/45559/Catalonian+independence+hangs+in+the+balance+as+Puigdemont+hesitates

Earlier on Thursday Puigdemont’s government told the press he was preparing to call elections himself, though without abandoning the call for independence. A speech was scheduled. But the apparent climbdown provoked fury.

Several MPs in his European Democrats of Catalonia (PDeCat) party went as far as saying they were stepping down ready to contest the election. Tens of thousands of students were protesting in Barcelona as part of a two-day student strike against Spanish repression. Student Marina Morante told Socialist Worker, “Everyone was very angry when we heard the news. We went to the central square Plaza de Sant Jaume to watch Puigdemont speak. People were shouting ‘independent republic’ and ‘Puigdemont resign!’” There were chants of “The people will not forgive” and “We have voted, apply the result”.

This had an echo at the top. Puigdemont’s centre-right party governs in coalition with the reformist Catalan Republican Left (ERC) and smaller parties, with the external support of the anti-capitalist Popular Unity Candidature (CUP). The CUP slammed the moves—and so did MPs on government benches. One prominent ERC MP, Gabriel Rufian, condemned Puigdemont’s treachery with a popular tweet saying “155 pieces of silver”. Antoni Castella of the smaller right wing party Democrats, vowed that it “won’t turn its back on the people” even if Puigdemont had.

(...)
Puigdemont was acting on an attempt at mediation by his Basque counterpart Inigo Urkullu and a group of Catalan bosses. The bosses wanted a return to “stability” in Catalonia, while the Basque government hoped to use the Catalan crisis as leverage to win reforms that boost its power within the Spanish state.
(...)
David Karvala, from revolutionary socialist group Marx21, told Socialist Worker, “Puigdemont is caught between different incompatible forces.

“On one side the pressure from the state, big business and the right of his party. On the other, a large part of his party, most of ERC, Omnium, ANC, the CUP and the street.”


#191
socialist worker's take
#192

tears posted:

socialist worker's take


"take" was a word before it became the monstrosity that it is today

also posting a thing isn't me endorsing it, if that's what you are getting at. they definitely seem a little naive, but i can't find much else

#193
i hate the socialist workers party, i will destroy thes ocialist workers party
#194
A truly piss-poor showing for Catalan nationalism.

Puigdemont has fled to Brussels to "make this a European issue", but there is no evidence he will get any more sympathy outside of Spain.

Piss-poor.

Edited by platzapS ()

#195
oh, we've declared independence i guess. lets just back down immediately and flee the country, thats a great idea
#196
oh yeah you laugh now but wait til he lines up a sick book deal
#197
As Catalonia Crisis Deepens, Many Basques Wary of New Independence Bid

GUERNICA, Spain — Deep in the hills of the Basque region, in northern Spain, Luis Iriondo tapped a bridge with his walking stick.

Mr. Iriondo, 95, is one of the last survivors of a notorious assault on Guernica during the Spanish Civil War in 1937. He was 14 when German bombers fighting for Gen. Francisco Franco reduced this town, for centuries a sacred symbol of Basque identity, to rubble.

And it was somewhere beneath this bridge that Mr. Iriondo, more than 80 years ago, sheltered during the attack.

Franco won the war and ended Basque self-government, which did not return until 1979, after Franco’s death. Though Mr. Iriondo still hopes for greater autonomy for the region, he does not want Basque separatists to follow their counterparts in Catalonia, whose parliament voted on Friday to secede from Spain, prompting the Spanish government to take administrative control of Catalonia hours later.


Catalonia voted on independence despite opposition from Spain's government. What are the origins of the secessionist movement, and what has happened since the vote?
“All my life, all I have had on my mind is war,” Mr. Iriondo said. “So what I look forward to is peace and unity.”

If the pollsters are right, his position is not uncommon among the Basques of Spain. As the secession crisis in Catalonia deepens, attention has turned to the northern Basque region — which, like Catalonia, has its own language, culture and long history of separatism — to see if the desire for independence proves contagious.

Until the 19th century, Spanish kings swore an oath to respect Basque autonomy underneath a tree here in Guernica. But the region’s self-government was dismantled in 1876, and so it remained (barring a brief period of autonomy during the Spanish Civil War) for more than a century.

Luis Iriondo is one of the last survivors of the assault on Guernica. Credit Patrick Kingsley/The New York Times
Even after its restoration, self-government was still not enough for some Basques — including a militant group, ETA, which killed more than 800 civilians, policemen and soldiers in a decades-long campaign for independence that formally ended this year.

But despite this tortured history, or perhaps because of it, the Catalan crisis does not appear to have markedly increased the zeal for Basque independence.

Many here sympathize with Catalan nationalists. But after a controversial Catalan independence referendum in early October, an opinion poll found that nearly 63 percent of Basques did not want to copy the Catalan approach to achieving independence, while only 22 percent were in favor. And while 44 percent hope for greater autonomy from Madrid, just 23 percent want their own independent country.

After over 40 years of separatist violence, many Basques want a timeout from the independence question, suggested Kirmen Uribe, an acclaimed Basque author who writes in Euskera, the Basque language.

“It’s like we’re different planets — Catalonia and the Basque Country — and we have different orbits,” Mr. Uribe said during an interview in San Sebastián, a coastal city famous for its food and shoreline. “The Basque orbit is longer, and the Catalan orbit is shorter. We need more time because we don’t want to break the Basque Country again.”

“It’s a question of timing — we don’t want independence right now,” Mr. Uribe added. “We’re more thinking about cleaning the wounds between us, between the Basque people.”

In Bilbao — the largest Basque city, and where tourism has boomed as separatist tensions have ebbed — the leader of the region’s largest nationalist party, Andoni Ortuzar, said there was no rush to achieve independence.

Instead of fast-tracking a divisive referendum, Andoni Ortuzar, the leader of the Basque region’s largest nationalist party, wants to first establish a consensus on independence. Credit Ander Gillenea/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images
“Our way is our way, and we cannot change it because of the Catalan situation,” said Mr. Ortuzar, the president of the Basque Nationalist Party, or P.N.V., a conservative group that has led the Basque region for all but three years since the restoration of Basque self-government in 1979.

Instead of fast-tracking a divisive referendum, Mr. Ortuzar’s “way” is to first establish a consensus among Basque parties and institutions about the kind of autonomy they want. Then he wants to present this joint proposal to the central government in Madrid, before putting the negotiated settlement to the Basque population in a referendum.

Even then, he does not expect a referendum on outright independence.

Besides, the Basque region already has greater autonomy than Catalonia, particularly in financial affairs, Mr. Ortuzar said.

If the Catalan crisis has changed anything, it is in the corridors of power in Madrid, rather than Bilbao, Mr. Ortuzar reckoned. The Spanish government will have learned the lesson of failing to engage constructively with independence-minded regional governments, which might provide the Basque region “an opportunity” in years to come, he said.

“The Catalan situation is very grave,” he said. “But it has a good consequence: Madrid has seen the risk of closing the door. And I think that many people in Madrid have seen — even if they’re not saying it, they’re thinking it — that it is necessary to change the state model.”

But the more trenchant Basque nationalists have concluded precisely the opposite.

Madrid’s violent response to the Catalan referendum is a sign of how it will treat any effort to increase Basque autonomy, said Arnaldo Otegi, a leading figure within P.N.V.’s main nationalist rival, a far-left coalition known as Basque Country Unite, or E.H. Bildu.

The experience of Catalonia shows “there is no state to negotiate with,” said Mr. Otegi, who returned to politics last year after spending six years in prison for trying to revive a banned political party linked to ETA. “Catalonia has shown that it’s not possible to democratize the Spanish state,” he added.


Madrid’s violent response to the Catalan referendum signals how it would treat any effort to increase Basque autonomy, said Arnaldo Otegi, a leading figure within a Basque far-left coalition. Credit Ander Gillenea/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images
This does not harbinger a return to separatist violence, which is now “out of the political equation” in the Basque region, Mr. Otegi said. “It’s not coming back. Forever.”

But it does mean that the Basque government should follow Catalonia’s example and hold a referendum before negotiating with Madrid, rather than the other way around, Mr. Otegi argued. He also expects “a reactivation” of peaceful interest in Basque nationalism, particularly among young people, he said. “Yes, it’s true there’s a fatigue after a long-term conflict — but something is changing in these past weeks.”

Analysts counter that Mr. Otegi says this more in hope than certainty. “There’s no piece of data that proves that’s happening,” said Ander Gutiérrez-Solana, a professor at the University of the Basque Country. “Not in the elections, not in the polls, not in the streets — there’s no big movement for independence.”

Tens of thousands of Basques rallied in Bilbao the day before the Catalan referendum, in solidarity with Catalonia, “but in my opinion it’s always the same people,” Mr. Gutiérrez-Solana said. “They’re not reaching new people.”

Grassroots activists nevertheless feel that something is stirring. Groups of young Basque nationalists traveled to Barcelona on the day of the referendum to learn from separatist organizers there. It was an experience that was “emotional and inspiring,” said Jone Amonarriz, one of the activists who participated.

Ms. Amonarriz, 24, is from the group It’s In Our Hands, or Gure Esku Dago, that has spent the last four years touring Basque villages, encouraging residents to revive a discussion about independence.

“We are sure that in five years,” said the group’s co-founder, Angel Oiarbide, “the situation in the Basque Country is going to be very different.”

Back in Guernica, however, Luis Iriondo voiced what others believe remains the majority opinion.

“I’d like more power,” he said. “But not if it means losing what we already have.”